Photo by Larry Wynn
The Great Talking Season is nearly over. Thus begins the most magnificent of seasons. The time known only as Football Season.
We are currently at the very beginning of what is now known as “Week Zero” in college football circles, with the first slate of seven games kicking off on Saturday. Less than a week later and the real fun begins.
One of the most beautiful aspects of college athletics - for now, anyway - is the division of the country into several different conferences. Unlike most American sports, which just have two prominent leagues with a few tenuous divisions, college sports have these bizarre and wacky bodies called conferences that operate, for much of the season, as their own little realm of sports.
We’ve seen the nuttiness of conference-driven college athletics really crank up to 11 in the last year or so with the ever-dramatic shadow of conference expansion. The sixteen members of the Big Ten now include embassies on the West Coast, the SEC stretches all the way to Oklahoma, and the Big XII has somehow turned into a vampire, draining the last vestiges of life-force from the Pac-4.
And nobody really seems to know what the Seminoles down in Tallahassee are up to, least of all the ACC.
For now, though, we still have five top-tier conferences leading the pack in all collegiate sports. Even if the geographic divisions of these conferences are starting to get muddier than Dwight Schrute’s job title, matters are about to be settled on the field and conference supremacy will once again come down to gridiron success.
While I have no intention of ascribing nefarious scheming to any parties in the Power 5 conferences, we all know the conspiracy theories are out there. People always insist that the eponymous “They” have machinations and designs on who will win when all is said and done.
So let’s have some fun with that. Below I present my argument for who each Power 5 conference would choose to win their respective conference crowns…if they could. I don’t necessarily believe that any of the teams I pick are the front runners for actual success, just that their victory in the conference would provide a best-case scenario. Or, at the very least, it might appease the conference powers’ petty hearts.
And, just for the sake of reality, I’ll add my thoughts on the actual likelihood of any of these teams winning.
I allow that some of the conferences could change their mind halfway through the season. There’s always a good story that pops up and surprises everyone, there’s always a team that garners a lot of media attention when they shock the world by starting the season 5-1 or 6-0. There’s always an upstart phenom who comes on and has a historic season, earning dark horse Heisman odds. What I love about the surprise success stories is how half the population insists that the conference is helping them, and the other half insists that the conference is trying to put them down in favor of “The Big Boys.”
College football is a beautiful game.
But enough dilly-dallying! Let’s take a sneak-peek behind the curtains of Power 5 Powers-That-Be to see who they are plotting to push over the edge, starting with…
The ACC Needs Clemson to Return to Form
If we go eons back to the very first CFB Playoff tournament in distant 2014, the mighty Florida State Seminoles were the defending champs and rode a 29-game winning streak all the way to the third seed, behind two one-loss conference champs. The disrespect was real, even with dominant Heisman-winning quarterback Jameis Winston, but nobody trusted FSU’s record due to a weak ACC schedule.
Fast forward nearly a decade and Clemson has obviously supplanted the ‘Noles as the kings of the ACC, making six straight CFPs with two titles to show for their efforts.
There are still doubts about how strong the ACC is overall, but they have sent a team to all seven CFPs thus far and are seemingly in fine shape. After all, only the SEC has equaled the ACC in SEC appearances.
And then comes the 2021 season. Right out of the gate, ACC-darling Clemson falls flat in a neutral-site against the eventual National Champs. Who was that team again? I just can’t quite remember. Hmm…
Clemson would manage to lose three regular-season games for the first time since 2014 and finish third in their own division behind Wake Forest and NC State…somehow.
Things were a little brighter in 2022, as Clemson picked up an ACC Championship and an 8-0 regular-season conference record, but the Tigers still lost three non-conference games. Two of those losses were against unranked opponents in floundering (but talented) Notre Dame and enigmatic South Carolina with one of the most boneheaded finishes you’ll ever hope to see.
With Clemson’s failures, the ACC has been left out of the CFP for two years in a row now.
As I previously alluded to, FSU has been making noise about their unhappiness with the conference lately. The key issue seems to be the financial allotment the ‘Noles are getting from TV deals. Losing out on those CFP bids, while not directly affecting the existing TV contract, has kept a sizable sum of money out of ACC coffers.
While it may not need to be Clemson who represents the ACC in the CFP, the Tigers have been trending upwards and will likely be in a position to win the conference yet again. And I can promise you that the ACC big wigs have no desire to hand over the football-shaped surveillance tower that is the conference trophy to FSU after how disparaging the ‘Noles have been this off-season.
What Needs to Happen: Clemson has to get through the conference schedule unscathed, most likely, with key battles against FSU in Death Valley on Sep. 23 and at Miami on Oct. 21. Even when the ‘Canes aren’t great, they always have one big home game every year where they get to show out and play spoiler. As much as it pains me to say, the late-season rivalry game against Georgia Tech on Nov. 11 could be tougher than it has been in recent years, but that will be the second of three straight home ACC games to end the season. I doubt the Tigers will let South Carolina get their goat this year, but that road trip on Thanksgiving Weekend always looms large.
Worst-Case Scenario for the ACC: FSU, who is starting the season as a Top-10 team, makes their way to the title game and gets to show the ACC who’s boss. It would be a bittersweet victory for the conference if the ‘Noles can at least make the CFP, but that kind of leverage might just make negotiations difficult for the ACC offices in the next round of realignment.
Likelihood: Most likely, the ACC will come down to either Clemson or FSU. There could always be a surprise candidate, but let’s not bank on it. After all, parity in the ACC usually means everyone is bad.
Tennessee Can Give the SEC a Fourth Threat
Oh, lowly Tennessee. You have to wonder which version of Purgatory was worse for their fans. Did they prefer being abysmal, knowing that they had no chance? Or is it better to be agonizingly close, wondering constantly what could have been?
Before you get too mad at me for teasing the Vols, keep in mind that they are now inhabiting the same space that UGA was for so many years. We were always on the cusp, but never quite got over the hump. This is empathy speaking right now, just as much as mockery.
Well. Maybe not quite as much.
What makes it worse for Tennessee is that they have been in nearly the exact same position in all three of the major men’s sports for the last couple years. No matter what season it is, the Vols have become intimately familiar with those razor-thin margins.
If we are to be achingly honest, nobody fears Tennessee. At least not when post-season comes into play. With basketball and baseball, it’s just expected that the Vols will have a historic tournament collapse, despite being a paper-favorite.
Where football is concerned, though, Tennessee can’t even get to the playoff.
There are some legitimate blockades in football, of course, given that only four teams get to play for the golden toothpick every year. And the Vols do have a pretty brutal schedule year-in and year-out, having to face both UGA and Alabama in just a few weeks time.
I’m sure if they petitioned the SEC, Tennessee could get a waiver or something to change that. Like cowards. (Glares in Auburn)
It started raining in the second half! Critical Hit!
The SEC, at the moment, has three teams that are anticipated CFP threats: two-time defending champs UGA, seven-time CFP participant Alabama, and 2019 CFP champ LSU. Probably more than any other conference.
(True, Auburn and Florida have also represented the SEC on the national scene in the last decade-plus, but…come on. We’re not in Fantasy Land here.)
Even though Tennessee football has made an apparent resurgence in recent years, they still seem to be falling short of taking that last step. They beat Bama, but then lose to UGA and South Carolina (SC’s second appearance as a spoiler on this list).
If Tennessee could finally supplant UGA or Bama at the top, that would give the SEC four genuine threats for the CFP ahead of conference expansion in 2024. While that’s not a directly quantifiable attribute, it can’t hurt to look like adding Texas and Oklahoma is a luxury rather than a necessity. Plus, with the Big Ten adding multiple genuine “CFP Threats” in 2024, the SEC would love to tout yet another of their long-time members as a valuable asset.
What Needs to Happen: Tennessee’s path to success is pretty obvious. Joe Milton needs to pick up where Hendon Hooker left off (and where Milton, himself, left off) in 2022. If he can run Josh Heupel’s offense as effectively and as dangerously as Hooker did, then the Vols will have a chance. It couldn’t hurt if the defense is much improved, after the Vols gave up 49 points to Alabama (in a win, admittedly) and 63 points in a season-shattering loss to South Carolina. Tennessee’s defense wasn’t terrible for most of the season, but they were generally assisted by the offense’s firepower and were susceptible at times. That being said, the UT defense did average just 22.77 points allowed per game in 2022, good enough for 36th in the country. Tennessee’s defensive problems weren’t “overall,” but more situational. The good news is that situational problems can be fixed more easily than major systemic flaws.
Worst-Case Scenario: Look. We all know that the SEC doesn’t care who wins so long as they get a team (or two) in the CFP. It would be unthinkable that the mighty SEC could miss out on the CFP, but it is ultimately possible. If the western trio of Bama, LSU, and Ole Miss beat up on each other, sending a two-loss team to the title game in Atlanta, things could get interesting. Then, whether the rep out of the SEC East is UGA or Tennessee, a win by the two-loss SEC West could lock the league out of the CFP altogether. Maybe.
Likelihood: For my money, I think UGA and Bama are the teams to beat in the SEC this year. LSU is high on the list, but they are known for their ebbs and flows. When the popular money is on LSU, they tend to fall away. If I were to put odds on Tennessee winning the SEC and representing the world’s best athletic organization in the CFP, I’d give them a 25 percent shot, though there’s only a 10 percent chance of that.
Could the Big XII Pull for the Pokes to Prod?
Oklahoma State has been the Tennessee of the Big XII for a long time. They are the orange underling to a burgundy dynasty, just without the actual championships in a bygone era. They have been tantalizingly close to breaking through, but then Lucy pulls the football away and they fall flat on their backs. Like Tennessee, Okie State has had seasons where they might beat the devil, but then lose to the pesky little pitchfork demon.
In 2021, Oklahoma State managed to put themselves inches short of winning the conference championship game for the first time ever, but Dezman Jackson was unable to stretch his arms to cartoonish lengths a la Michael Jordan.
Last season’s Cowboys started out 5-0, making it all the way to No. 7, before taking their first loss to eventual CFP finalist TCU in heartbreaking double-overtime. As TCU was wont to do last year.
Oklahoma State only won two more games the rest of the way, finishing their season at 7-6 with a bowl loss to Wisconsin.
It’s been a long time since Mike “Grown Man” Gundy has put forth such a lackluster team in the land of stagnant water, but perhaps he was too busy looking for his next school to lie about applying to.
Similar to the SEC pulling for Tennessee to finally become a nationally-respected CFP threat, the Big XII needs someone other than Texas or Oklahoma to look good. Especially because Texas and Oklahoma won’t be around in 2024.
In truth, you could pick a lot of teams from the Big XII to succeed in order to show up the departing powers, but the Big XII has been something of an enigma lately. While TCU made the finals last season, there is little expectation that they will perform at or near the same level as last year. Especially since seven of their 14 games ended in one-score deficits, with six of those games going their way.
(The national championship game, of course, was decidedly not a one-score game.)
“I’m as old as Mike Gundy! You can’t talk to me that way, Mom!” (Photo by Icons8 Team on Unsplash)
When you talk about baseball, you always look at the one-run games and how often a team wins or loses those close games. And you know that, eventually, the number will return to average. A football team can’t expect to live by narrow victories, even if TCU made a habit of it in 2022.
With the two traditional powers of the Bix XII leaving, having Oklahoma State win the conference and finally appear in the CFP would go along way towards making it appear that the Big XII will be just fine moving forward. Baylor makes a good case for the best option, especially as the league’s co-star in 2014’s historic CFP snubbing, but having Oklahoma’s deepest rival spoiling the going-away party would likely provide the sweetest satisfaction for the league. Who else but the loyal half of Bedlam to take over at the top?
What Needs to Happen: Okie State was 49th in scoring offense and 89th in scoring defense last season. The Cowboys need to get good…at something. Or at least more consistent. Starting the season 5-0 is great, but finishing 2-6 afterwards is obviously less than ideal. The Cowboys are usually pretty good on offense, but they really made their mark in 2021 by being perhaps the best defensive team in the Big XII. Oklahoma State was ninth nationally in 2021 with scoring defense, allowing just 18.1 points per game. Given that they play in the high-octane Big XII, that’s an extremely impressive number. Baylor was breathing down their necks, though, at just 18.3 points allowed per game.
Worst-Case Scenario: The worst outcome for the Big XII is that Texas and Oklahoma meet for a rematch of the Red-River [CENSORED] in early December, giving the SEC two conference champions. I think the office chairs would be getting a little uncomfortable if that were to happen. Anybody else winning would be fine, but Oklahoma State would certainly set their minds at ease the most.
Likelihood: Okie State has an easy enough conference schedule. At first glance, the most difficult game would be Bedlam, where they face the preseason 20th ranked Oklahoma Sooners. Even Oklahoma was pretty rough in 2022, though, so who knows if that game really poses the threat it used to? If they can take care of business in the “easy” games, and somehow sneak out a win in the true tests, then perhaps the “Go Pokes” crowd can give the Big XII an early Christmas.
The Pac Needs a Miracle and the Big Ten Has House Money
It would be more important to list the teams that the Pac doesn’t want to win. With the Pac-12 dropping down to four teams in 2024, we have to assume that they are in the same position as the Big XII.
The four teams who will still (presumably) be part of the Pac-## moving forward seem to have the leg up.
What I can’t decide is which team gives the Pac the best look. The most likely of the four remaining teams is Stanford, who has won the Pac-12 football championship three times since its inception in 2011. The Cardinal tends to play spoiler when they can, but they have been down as of late.
Perhaps that’s why nobody has come calling in the wake of the Pac-12’s wake. Despite the fact that Stanford is one of the most consistently successful athletic programs in the country, along with having some of the most prestigious academics outside of the Ivy League, they are looking on from the crow’s nest as everyone jumps ship, wondering who will be left to toss them a line.
The violinists are playing and the Carpathia ain’t pulling astride any time soon.
The rising tide of the Pac-12’s football success seems to have left Stanford behind. In 2022, the Cardinal faced five ranked conference opponents and lost to each and every one of them by a combined score of 206-97.
Sitting at 21.8 points as an average margin of defeat in ranked conference games is bad. Right?
The picture is slightly better if you look at Oregon State as the Pac’s savior. The Beavers went 10-3 in 2022, finishing with a 6-3 conference record en route to a No. 17 ranking at the end of the season.
Perhaps they have what it takes to win the day…but I doubt it. The only reason I pegged Stanford is because of their history of winning in the Pac-12, even though they have very little hope of making the drastic improvements needed in 2023. Plus, we’ve had way too much orange on this page today. I think we can forego this one. Cool?
The other two remainders, Washington State and Cal, are a mixed bag when it comes to football success. Especially in recent years.
You almost have to feel bad for the Pac-12, really. They have only sent a team to the CFP twice in its nine-year history: Oregon in 2014’s inaugural tournament and Washington, oddly enough, two years later.
The most storied football program in Pac-12 history, USC, has never been able to crack the Final Four.
Even though the conference has struggled to reach the CFP, their prospects have certainly improved as of late. Last season saw five teams finish with at least 10 wins with six in the final Top 25 rankings. Even without a CFP appearance added to their accolades, the Pac-12 looked to be on its way up.
And now all but one of those teams that finished last season ranked will be leaving for other pastures.
I briefly mentioned how there is an outside chance that the SEC could finish with two conference champions, but the Big Ten is in an even better position. Of the three favorites to win the Pac-12 this season - USC, Utah, and Oregon - two of them will be joining the Big Ten next season. The Utes will be shipping on down to the Big XII, along with Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado.
Admittedly, this does give the Big XII an outside chance at picking up the Pac-12 championship this season, but I lean heavily towards USC or Oregon winning it for their future home.
And as for the Big Ten, they really don’t care who wins their own conference this year. Both Ohio State and Michigan made the CFP last year, even if neither team could escape the semifinals. Both teams are still in the top three of the AP Poll and the top four of the Coaches Poll to start the 2023 season. It would mean much more for USC or Oregon to win the Pac-12 title than for any single Big Ten member to dance on the field at Lucas Oil Stadium in December.
After missing out on the Playoff in 2017 and 2018, the Big Ten was thrilled to finally get their two premier programs in the mix, joining the SEC as the only two football conferences to have multiple playoff teams in a single season.
Should either of the two heated rivals win it this year, great! Perhaps Penn State gets back into the limelight? Okay. That’s fine. Maybe even Michigan State or Iowa…eh. Probably not Iowa.
The “#1” here stands for “One more point and we wouldn’t have lost to you!”
The goal for the Big Ten, at this point, is to just have a team win a semifinal game. Despite Ohio State winning the inaugural CFP title at the ultimate moment of the 2014 season, the Big Ten has only had one other team make a final at all. The Buckeyes made it back to the championship game to face desolation against Alabama in the pandemic-marred 2020 season.
(You almost had it in 2022, but, as Garth Brooks said, it’s midnight, Cinderella!)
Ohio State only played seven games the entire season before falling to Bama 52-24 in what has to be the least attended national championship game since Yale was the top dog in college football.
Let’s put it this way. The Big Ten is kinda like District 1 in Panem. They’re all working really hard to train and winnow out the weaklings, selecting the best tribute to represent them and, with a little luck, maybe even win the Hunger Games. And no scrub from District 12 is gonna stand in their way.
Unfortunately for them, being the 21st and 22nd competitors eliminated in the Hunger Games won’t do you much good. You’re still just a cannon shot in the night somewhere. Thus ends the song of buckeyes and wolverines.
But I digress.
Even with the obvious concerns surrounding their seeming inability to put a team into the finals, the Big Ten truly is playing with house money this year. And it’s mostly the money they stole from the Pac-12 by pilfering the conference’s cash cows.
What Needs to Happen: Simply put, the Pac-12 needs a miracle for one of their remaining four teams to win the title this year instead of the disloyal throngs who are set to depart at the start of next season. Perhaps USC and Oregon and all the other front-runners can beat up on each other while they struggle to look for their winter clothing that they know they packed away somewhere, leaving Oregon State or a vastly improved Stanford to sneak up from behind and take the crown. But we really would need insanity not seen since 2007 for one of the four loyalists to win the Pac-12’s swan song football championship.
Worst-Case Scenario: Again, it’s really obvious. If either USC, UCLA, or Oregon win the Pac-12 this season, as one of those three probably will, it would be a bitter pill to swallow for the conference office. Utah winning might at least elicit a smirk from some of the higher-ups since the Utes, and the others breaking away for the Big XII, mostly acted in self-defense. (Plus, Utah never really belonged in the Pac-12, anyway. They were always much more of a Big XII team in my mind.) The baddest of the blood has to be between the Pac-12 and the Big Ten. Perhaps they should get their two best teams and put them in a stadium somewhere in January, perhaps a historic venue in sunny southern California, to settle their differences. That could be fun.
Likelihood: Yeah…it’s not gonna happen. The Pac-12 is going to ride off into the sunset, watching the Big Ten steal their best teams and their football championship. But Stanford will probably still save them in track and field, so that’s something.